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E-commerce fraud prevention using a weekly statistical model

E-commerce fraud prevention using a weekly statistical model

In order to prevent e-commerce fraud, you need to be aware that frauds has their own characteristics due to their nature. Indeed, fraudsters are not standard buyer like everyone else because of their goals which are different from a standard buyer. Those “cyber-thieves” would have a result-oriented behaviors when normal people would have a regular behavior.

Studied population

These data has been collected from our client using our Anti-Fraud module. The study includes 57,732 orders placed between July 2014 and March 2015 on e-commerces. The french market has been chosen for this seasonality analysis for the fact of its unique time zone that eases understanding of the analysis.

The e-commerce frauds match the purchasing trend

Globally, the overall volume of frauds follows the volume of orders which is characterized by a decreasing trend of purchase throughout the week.

E-commerce fraud prevention using a weekly statistical model

Fraudsters do not work during the weekend

In addition, if we observe the evolution of the weekly fraud rate, we note a phenomenon worthy of appearing in our column “ Fun With Frauds ” . Indeed, we note that the fraud rate is on average 1.6% Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but fell to 1.3% Saturday, Sunday and Monday a decrease of fraud rate of over 20%. Sunday rest is up even as the fraud rate is lowest on Sundays at 1.1%.

E-commerce fraud prevention using a weekly statistical model

Fraudsters hate Mondays

In conclusion, the fraud behavior is mostly following the standard purchase behaviour.. One hypothesis is as the two subpopulations are subject to the same variables then weekly behaviors are relatively close. However, the 20% decline in the rate of fraud on Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays is almost anecdotal, we could translate this phenomenon by an emergence of professional fraudsters.

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